Gross domestic product (GDP) sped up in Q3 2021 (+3.0% after +1.3% in Q2). GDP almost returned to its pre-crisis level and stood 0.1% below its Q4 2019 level.
Final internal demand (excluding inventory changes) contributed positively to GDP growth this quarter (+3.3 points, after +1.5 points in Q2): in particular, households’ consumption expenditure accelerated very strongly (+5.0% after +1.3%), and contributed for +2.5 points to GDP growth this quarter. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) was almost stable (-0.1% after +2.5% in the previous quarter).
Exports accelerated this quarter (+2.3% after +1.2% in the previous quarter) while imports were stable (+0.1% after +1.7%). Foreign trade remained largely below its pre-crisis level, but its contribution to GDP growth was positive this quarter: +0.6 points, after –0.2 points in the previous quarter. Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was negative this quarter (–0.9 points after +0.0 points in the previous quarter).
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No281
Paru le :Paru le29/10/2021
Prochaine parution le: 30/07/2024 at 07:30 - second quarter 2024
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- Total production accelerated in Q3 2021 (+2.6%) and nearly returns to its pre-crisis level (–0.2% from Q4 2019)
- Household consumption improved at a fast pace in Q3 2021 (+5.0%) and approaches its pre-crisis level (–0.9% from Q4 2019)
- Investment was almost stable this quarter (–0.1% after +2.5%) and remained above its pre-crisis level (+1.4% from Q4 2019)
- Foreign trade partially recovered and contributed positively to GDP growth
- The contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was negative (–0.9 points) in the third quarter of 2021
- Revisions
Gross domestic product (GDP) sped up in Q3 2021 (+3.0% after +1.3% in Q2). GDP almost returned to its pre-crisis level and stood 0.1% below its Q4 2019 level.
Final internal demand (excluding inventory changes) contributed positively to GDP growth this quarter (+3.3 points, after +1.5 points in Q2): in particular, households’ consumption expenditure accelerated very strongly (+5.0% after +1.3%), and contributed for +2.5 points to GDP growth this quarter. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) was almost stable (-0.1% after +2.5% in the previous quarter).
Exports accelerated this quarter (+2.3% after +1.2% in the previous quarter) while imports were stable (+0.1% after +1.7%). Foreign trade remained largely below its pre-crisis level, but its contribution to GDP growth was positive this quarter: +0.6 points, after –0.2 points in the previous quarter. Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was negative this quarter (–0.9 points after +0.0 points in the previous quarter).
- Graphique
- Tableau
tableauGDP - SA-WDA
| PIB | |
|---|---|
| 2005-Q1 | 492259 |
| 2005-Q2 | 493138 |
| 2005-Q3 | 495645 |
| 2005-Q4 | 499504 |
| 2006-Q1 | 503346 |
| 2006-Q2 | 508345 |
| 2006-Q3 | 508426 |
| 2006-Q4 | 512478 |
| 2007-Q1 | 516306 |
| 2007-Q2 | 520187 |
| 2007-Q3 | 522061 |
| 2007-Q4 | 523280 |
| 2008-Q1 | 525390 |
| 2008-Q2 | 523088 |
| 2008-Q3 | 521651 |
| 2008-Q4 | 514082 |
| 2009-Q1 | 505667 |
| 2009-Q2 | 505121 |
| 2009-Q3 | 505930 |
| 2009-Q4 | 509465 |
| 2010-Q1 | 511334 |
| 2010-Q2 | 513915 |
| 2010-Q3 | 517238 |
| 2010-Q4 | 520933 |
| 2011-Q1 | 526130 |
| 2011-Q2 | 526229 |
| 2011-Q3 | 528139 |
| 2011-Q4 | 529083 |
| 2012-Q1 | 529617 |
| 2012-Q2 | 528733 |
| 2012-Q3 | 529740 |
| 2012-Q4 | 529369 |
| 2013-Q1 | 529384 |
| 2013-Q2 | 532788 |
| 2013-Q3 | 532842 |
| 2013-Q4 | 535458 |
| 2014-Q1 | 535905 |
| 2014-Q2 | 536479 |
| 2014-Q3 | 539161 |
| 2014-Q4 | 539696 |
| 2015-Q1 | 542295 |
| 2015-Q2 | 542266 |
| 2015-Q3 | 544125 |
| 2015-Q4 | 544981 |
| 2016-Q1 | 548424 |
| 2016-Q2 | 547461 |
| 2016-Q3 | 548536 |
| 2016-Q4 | 551537 |
| 2017-Q1 | 556026 |
| 2017-Q2 | 560518 |
| 2017-Q3 | 564096 |
| 2017-Q4 | 568945 |
| 2018-Q1 | 569073 |
| 2018-Q2 | 571029 |
| 2018-Q3 | 573337 |
| 2018-Q4 | 577551 |
| 2019-Q1 | 581230 |
| 2019-Q2 | 584274 |
| 2019-Q3 | 584806 |
| 2019-Q4 | 582808 |
| 2020-Q1 | 549707 |
| 2020-Q2 | 475687 |
| 2020-Q3 | 563752 |
| 2020-Q4 | 557627 |
| 2021-Q1 | 558044 |
| 2021-Q2 | 565334 |
| 2021-Q3 | 582338 |
graphiqueGDP - SA-WDA
tableauGDP and its main components
percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
| 2020 Q4 | 2021 Q1 | 2021 Q2 | 2021 Q3 | 2020 | 2021 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | -1.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 3.0 | -8.0 | 6.6 |
| Imports | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.1 | -12.2 | 6.2 |
| Household consumption expenditure | -5.4 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 5.0 | -7.2 | 4.4 |
| General government’s consumption expenditure | -0.7 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 3.0 | -3.2 | 6.4 |
| GFCF | 2.3 | 0.4 | 2.5 | -0.1 | -8.9 | 11.5 |
| Of which non-financial corporations and unincorporated enterprises | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | -0.1 | -8.1 | 11.8 |
| Households | 6.6 | -1.4 | 5.4 | 0.8 | -12.2 | 16.1 |
| General government | 0.5 | -0.5 | 1.3 | -1.0 | -4.4 | 5.3 |
| Exports | 4.6 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.3 | -16.1 | 7.6 |
| Contributions: | ||||||
| Internal demand excluding inventory changes | -2.6 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 3.3 | -6.7 | 6.6 |
| Inventory changes | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.9 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| Net foreign trade | 0.8 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.6 | -1.1 | 0.2 |
tableauGDP and its main components - percentage change from 2019 Q4
percentage change, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
| 2020 Q4 | 2021 Q1 | 2021 Q2 | 2021 Q3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | -4.3 | -4.2 | -3.0 | -0.1 |
| Imports | -8.5 | -7.1 | -5.5 | -5.4 |
| Household consumption expenditure | -6.8 | -6.8 | -5.6 | -0.9 |
| General government’s consumption expenditure | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 4.3 |
| GFCF | -1.4 | -1.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Of which non-financial corporations and unincorporated enterprises | -0.7 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Households | -0.6 | -2.0 | 3.2 | 4.1 |
| General government | -0.8 | -1.4 | -0.1 | -1.1 |
| Exports | -10.3 | -10.4 | -9.1 | -7.0 |
Total production accelerated in Q3 2021 (+2.6%) and nearly returns to its pre-crisis level (–0.2% from Q4 2019)
Total production of goods and services accelerated in Q3: +2.6%, after +1.6% in Q2. This acceleration was largely driven by market services (+4.7% after +2.5%), especially in hotel and restaurant services (+43.4% after +30.6%) and in transport and storage services (+8.6% after +4.7%). The production of non-market services also increased this quarter (+1.5% after +0.0%). On the contrary, the production of the manufacturing branches declined this quarter (–0.6% after –0.1%), as did the production of the construction sector (–1.0% after +3.2%).In Q3 2021, total production almost returned to its pre-crisis level (–0.2% from Q4 2019), mainly due to production in services. In particular, the production of market services exceeded its pre-crisis level for the first time this quarter (+0.9% in Q4 2019, compared to –3.6% in the previous quarter). The production of non-market services also exceeded its Q4 2019 level (+3.1%). In contrast, production in goods remained well below its pre-crisis level (–4.2% from Q4 2019), particularly in the manufacturing branches (–6.0%). Construction also stood behind its pre-crisis level (–1.1% from Q4 2019).
tableauProduction, consumption and GFCF: main components
percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
| 2020 Q4 | 2021 Q1 | 2021 Q2 | 2021 Q3 | 2020 | 2021 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production of branches | -0.4 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | -8.5 | 6.9 |
| Goods | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -10.8 | 5.7 |
| Manufactured industry | 2.3 | 0.7 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -13.0 | 6.3 |
| Construction | -0.4 | 1.0 | 3.2 | -1.0 | -13.0 | 12.8 |
| Market services | -1.6 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 4.7 | -8.2 | 6.9 |
| Non-market services | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | -3.4 | 6.1 |
| Household consumption | -5.4 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 5.0 | -7.2 | 4.4 |
| Food products | 0.8 | 0.5 | -1.8 | -3.2 | 3.0 | -2.9 |
| Energy | -3.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 2.1 | -7.3 | 7.1 |
| Engineered goods | -8.1 | 0.2 | -4.6 | 6.3 | -8.4 | 6.2 |
| Services | -7.3 | -1.0 | 4.6 | 9.1 | -11.1 | 6.1 |
| GFCF | 2.3 | 0.4 | 2.5 | -0.1 | -8.9 | 11.5 |
| Manufactured goods | -1.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 | -2.0 | -11.1 | 9.1 |
| Construction | -0.3 | 1.1 | 3.3 | -0.6 | -14.2 | 14.6 |
| Market services | 7.7 | -0.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | -1.3 | 9.7 |
tableauProduction, consumption and GFCF: main components – percentage change from 2019 Q4
percentage change, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
| 2020 Q4 | 2021 Q1 | 2021 Q2 | 2021 Q3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production of branches | -4.5 | -4.2 | -2.7 | -0.2 |
| Goods | -4.6 | -4.2 | -3.9 | -4.2 |
| Manufactured industry | -6.0 | -5.3 | -5.4 | -6.0 |
| Construction | -4.1 | -3.2 | -0.1 | -1.1 |
| Market services | -6.1 | -6.0 | -3.6 | 0.9 |
| Non-market services | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 3.1 |
| Household consumption | -6.8 | -6.8 | -5.6 | -0.9 |
| Food products | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | -2.0 |
| Energy | -5.1 | -2.2 | -0.8 | 1.3 |
| Engineered goods | -3.8 | -3.6 | -8.1 | -2.3 |
| Services | -12.5 | -13.4 | -9.3 | -1.1 |
| GFCF | -1.4 | -1.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Manufactured goods | -3.3 | -2.9 | -2.2 | -4.2 |
| Construction | -4.6 | -3.5 | -0.4 | -1.0 |
| Market services | 3.4 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 7.6 |
Household consumption improved at a fast pace in Q3 2021 (+5.0%) and approaches its pre-crisis level (–0.9% from Q4 2019)
Household consumption expenditure accelerated strongly this quarter (+5.0% after +1.3% in Q2). This increase was essentially driven by the consumption of services, in particular hotel and restaurant services (+58.9% after +44.9% in the previous quarter): this increase contributed to half of the GDP growth this quarter. Consumption of "other household services" was also very dynamic this quarter (+20.7% after +4.5%), driven by the reopening of museums, theme parks, casinos, etc. Similarly, consumption of transport services recovered strongly (+42.8% after +10.6%). Finally, household consumption in goods also rebounded (+1.8% after –2.5% in the previous quarter).
Overall, household consumption approached its pre-crisis level (–0.9% from Q4 2019 level). In particular, in Q3 2021, household consumption of hotel and restaurant services stood only 4.4% below its pre-crisis level, compared with 39.8% during Q2.
Investment was almost stable this quarter (–0.1% after +2.5%) and remained above its pre-crisis level (+1.4% from Q4 2019)
Total GFCF was almost stable (–0.1%, after +2.5% in the previous quarter): GFCF in market services remained dynamic (+1.6% after +2.7%), but was offset by the decline of GFCF in manufactured goods (–2.0% after +0.7%) and in the construction sector (–0.6%, after +3.3%)
In the third quarter of 2021, GFCF thus remained above its pre-crisis level: +1.4% compared to the level in Q4 2019, after +1.5% in the previous quarter.
Foreign trade partially recovered and contributed positively to GDP growth
In Q3 2021, exports accelerated (+2.3% after +1.2%), while imports were almost stable (+0.1% after +1.7%). Thus, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was positive this quarter (+0.6 points, after –0.2 points in the previous quarter). In particular, foreign trade in tourism picked up significantly: +65.3% for exports and +43.2% for imports. On the contrary, foreign trade in goods fell slightly: –0.8% for exports and –1.2% for imports.
Foreign trade approached its pre-crisis level but remained deteriorated: –7.0% from Q4 2019 for exports, –5.4% for imports. In particular, foreign tourism remained largely below its pre-crisis level: –31.4% for exports from Q4 2019, –28.4% for imports.
The contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was negative (–0.9 points) in the third quarter of 2021
Inventory changes contributed negatively to GDP growth this quarter (–0.9 points, after +0.0 points in Q2 2021): with the dynamism of internal demand, the improvement of the foreign trade balance on godds and the atony of mafuctaring production, economics agents increased less their inventories, or even decreased them. This effect is particularly notable for food products, refined fuel and other industrial goods.
tableauHouseholds’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
| 2020 Q4 | 2021 Q1 | 2021 Q2 | 2021 Q3 | 2020 | 2021(ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDI | 2.1 | -0.1 | 1.1 | nd | 1.0 | 3.1 |
| HDI (purchasing power) | 2.0 | -0.9 | 0.8 | nd | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| HDI by cu* (purchasing power) | 1.9 | -1.0 | 0.7 | nd | 0.0 | 1.6 |
| Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) | 1.0 | -0.7 | 0.9 | nd | -1.1 | 2.6 |
| Saving rate (level) | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.4 | nd | 21.4 | nd |
| Financial saving rate (level) | 12.0 | 11.4 | 10.5 | nd | 12.2 | nd |
tableauRatios of non-financial corporations’s account
level (in percent), WDA-SA data
| 2020 Q4 | 2021 Q1 | 2021 Q2 | 2021 Q3 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit share | 34.3 | 36.0 | 35.8 | nd | 31.7 |
| Investment ratio | 25.6 | 25.7 | 25.8 | nd | 24.6 |
| Savings ratio | 25.8 | 26.5 | 26.6 | nd | 21.8 |
| Self-financing ratio | 100.8 | 103.0 | 103.3 | nd | 88.6 |
tableauExpenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
level, WDA-SA data
| 2020 Q4 | 2021 Q1 | 2021 Q2 | 2021 Q3 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In billions of euros | |||||
| Total expenditure | 370.2 | 372.1 | 373.5 | nd | 1419.9 |
| Total receipts | 307.1 | 311.5 | 312.7 | nd | 1210.9 |
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -63.1 | -60.6 | -60.8 | nd | -209.0 |
| In% of GDP | |||||
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -10.6 | -10.1 | -9.9 | nd | -9.1 |
Revisions
The GDP growth estimate for Q2 2021 is revised upwards by 0.2 points to +1.3%. This revision is due to the integration of new data, and to the revision of existing indicators.
To go further
Next publication: November 30, 2021 at 08:45 a.m.
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